Gartner's IT Spending Forecast Shows Software Losing Ground

What happened

Gartner published its latest worldwide IT spending forecast on July 27, projecting total spending of $6.37 trillion in 2026, a 14.2% increase over 2025. The breakdown shows an uneven picture: data center systems are forecast to grow 62.5% to $822 billion, driven by AI compute buildout, while software spending grows a comparatively modest 15.5% to $1.468 trillion. IaaS is up 29.3%, devices 9.8%, and communications services just 4.4%. Gartner distinguished VP analyst John-David Lovelock called the buildout "the largest infrastructure project ever attempted by humanity," underscoring how much of the current spending wave is going toward compute capacity rather than new applications.

Why this IT spending forecast matters for software sellers

If you sell software into enterprise or mid-market budgets, this forecast is a warning that the growth headline overstates your opportunity. Total IT spend is up sharply, but the fastest-growing line item is infrastructure that competes with, rather than funds, new software purchases; buyers financing GPU capacity and data center contracts have less discretionary budget left over for a new SaaS line item. Deals are more likely to get scrutinized against existing infrastructure commitments than they were a year ago, even as the top-line budget number keeps climbing, and procurement teams are increasingly asking founders to justify spend against what's already been committed elsewhere in the stack.

1. 01
   Frame your pricing conversation around displacement, not addition

   With data center spend growing four times faster than software, buyers increasingly see new software as competing against AI infrastructure commitments already made. Position your product this week as replacing an existing cost line, such as a manual process or a legacy tool, rather than as a new line item competing against a GPU contract.
2. 02
   Ask prospects directly about their AI infrastructure commitments

   A prospect already locked into data center or IaaS spending has less flexible budget than the topline 14.2% growth figure suggests. Add a discovery question about existing AI infrastructure commitments to your next five sales calls to gauge how much real discretionary budget remains this cycle.
3. 03
   Revisit your own revenue plan against the latest forecast number

   Gartner's 2026 forecast has been revised upward three times this year as AI infrastructure spend accelerated faster than expected. Check your own pipeline assumptions this week against the current number rather than one from earlier in the year, since the spending mix, not just the total, keeps shifting.

By the numbers: Data center systems spending is forecast to grow 62.5% in 2026 to $822 billion, more than four times the 15.5% growth rate forecast for software, per Gartner.

What to do this week

Pull your last ten closed-lost enterprise deals and check whether the stated reason for the loss involved budget reallocation toward infrastructure or AI tooling rather than a competing product. If it's a pattern, rewrite your next outbound sequence in your CRM to lead with a cost-displacement angle instead of a feature pitch, since Gartner's data suggests that's where the real budget conversation is happening right now, and it will keep shifting as the buildout continues into next year.